Three research CIOs forecast whether each NSE F&O banking and NBFC stock will be UP or DOWN after 5, 10 and 20 trading days. Every forecast is frozen before the next trading session opens and is later scored against what the market actually did.
Experimental research. Not investment advice. Not a guarantee of returns.Probability is the CIO’s frozen model probability that the stock closes higher (UP) or not higher (DOWN) after the stated number of trading days. A strong pick needs at least 55%. CIO confidence is a separate self-rating by CIO-A and CIO-C, not a probability. Picks are never combined into one number. CIO-A: AI research analyst. CIO-B: statistical model (price data only). CIO-C: hybrid: model plus AI research.
Eligibility: NSE F&O futures listed on 2026-11-02 (30 stocks). 10 trading days: not part of this session's frozen forecast (it covered 1, 5 and 20 trading days).
| Stock | Type | CIO-A 5d | CIO-B 5d | CIO-C 5d | CIO-A 10d | CIO-B 10d | CIO-C 10d | CIO-A 20d | CIO-B 20d | CIO-C 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AU Small Finance BankAUBANK | Bank | 50% no view | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 56% UP PENDING | ▲ 56% UP PENDING |
| Axis BankAXISBANK | Bank | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING |
| Bajaj FinanceBAJFINANCE | NBFC | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 54% UP PENDING | ▲ 54% UP PENDING |
| Bandhan BankBANDHANBNK | Bank | ▼ 51% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▼ 52% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 54% UP PENDING | ▲ 54% UP PENDING |
| Bank of BarodaBANKBARODA | Bank | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING |
| Bank of IndiaBANKINDIA | Bank | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING |
| Canara BankCANBK | Bank | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING |
| Cholamandalam Investment and FinanceCHOLAFIN | NBFC | 50% no view | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 55% UP PENDING | ▲ 55% UP PENDING |
| Federal BankFEDERALBNK | Bank | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 55% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING |
| HDFC BankHDFCBANK | Bank | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING |
| ICICI BankICICIBANK | Bank | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 56% UP PENDING | ▲ 55% UP PENDING | ▲ 55% UP PENDING |
| IDFC First BankIDFCFIRSTB | Bank | 50% no view | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING |
| Indian BankINDIANB | Bank | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 55% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING |
| Indian Railway Finance CorporationIRFC | NBFC | ▼ 51% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▼ 52% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING |
| Indian Renewable Energy Development AgencyIREDA Only one futures contract (expiry 2026-11-23) was listed on 2026-11-02: the stock may be leaving F&O. | NBFC | ▼ 51% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▼ 52% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING | ▲ 54% UP PENDING |
| IndusInd BankINDUSINDBK | Bank | 50% no view | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 56% UP PENDING | ▲ 56% UP PENDING |
| Jio Financial ServicesJIOFIN | NBFC | 50% no view | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▼ 51% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING | ▲ 55% UP PENDING |
| Kotak Mahindra BankKOTAKBANK | Bank | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 56% UP PENDING | ▲ 56% UP PENDING | ▲ 56% UP PENDING |
| L&T FinanceLTF | NBFC | 50% no view | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 56% UP PENDING | ▲ 56% UP PENDING |
| LIC Housing FinanceLICHSGFIN | NBFC | 50% no view | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING |
| Manappuram FinanceMANAPPURAM | NBFC | 50% no view | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | 50% no view | ▲ 55% UP PENDING | ▲ 55% UP PENDING |
| Muthoot FinanceMUTHOOTFIN | NBFC | 50% no view | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING |
| PNB Housing FinancePNBHOUSING | NBFC | 50% no view | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING |
| Punjab National BankPNB | Bank | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 54% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING |
| RBL BankRBLBANK | Bank | 50% no view | ▼ 50% DOWN PENDING | ▼ 50% DOWN PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING |
| SBI Cards and Payment ServicesSBICARD | NBFC | ▼ 51% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▼ 52% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING | ▲ 54% UP PENDING |
| Shriram FinanceSHRIRAMFIN | NBFC | 50% no view | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING |
| State Bank of IndiaSBIN | Bank | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | ▲ 51% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 55% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING | ▲ 53% UP PENDING |
| Union Bank of IndiaUNIONBANK | Bank | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | ▲ 50% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▲ 55% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING |
| Yes BankYESBANK | Bank | ▼ 51% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | ▲ 52% UP PENDING | not forecast | not forecast | not forecast | ▼ 51% DOWN PENDING | ▲ 57% UP PENDING | ▲ 54% UP PENDING |
“abstained” means the CIO had no view better than the base rate and made no call. “unavailable” means no valid frozen forecast exists for that CIO on that day. “not forecast” means that horizon was not part of that day’s forecast.
Only fully matured forecasts are scored: a 5-day call is scored after 5 trading days. A call is correct if the direction was right. “If always UP” shows how often simply saying UP would have been right on the same calls, for comparison.
| CIO | Horizon | Total calls | Correct | Wrong | Accuracy | Pending | If always UP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIO-A | 5 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 18 | — |
| CIO-A | 10 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | — |
| CIO-A | 20 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 29 | — |
| CIO-B | 5 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 30 | — |
| CIO-B | 10 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | — |
| CIO-B | 20 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 30 | — |
| CIO-C | 5 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 30 | — |
| CIO-C | 10 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | — |
| CIO-C | 20 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 30 | — |
The Historical School replays the market one session at a time from 2010, freezing the same three CIOs before each outcome. Replay so far covers forecasts made from 2010-01-28 to 2013-08-20. It is not live forward evidence: CIO-A and CIO-C use an AI model whose training includes this history, so their replay results may be flattered. CIO-B, the statistical model, uses only data available at each date.
| CIO | Horizon | Total calls | Correct | Wrong | Accuracy | If always UP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIO-A | 5 days | 1793 | 954 | 839 | 53.2% | 49.7% |
| CIO-A | 10 days | not forecast in the replay | ||||
| CIO-A | 20 days | 1925 | 948 | 977 | 49.2% | 49.6% |
| CIO-B | 5 days | 2420 | 1205 | 1215 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| CIO-B | 10 days | not forecast in the replay | ||||
| CIO-B | 20 days | 2272 | 1048 | 1224 | 46.1% | 50.0% |
| CIO-C | 5 days | 1170 | 603 | 567 | 51.5% | 54.5% |
| CIO-C | 10 days | not forecast in the replay | ||||
| CIO-C | 20 days | 1190 | 549 | 641 | 46.1% | 51.8% |